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为探求未来气候变化背景下旱地小麦灌溉和播种时间的管理策略，利用农业生产系统模拟模型（APSIM），在陇中旱地春小麦2014-2022统计年鉴数据基础上，结合CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5）模式的未来气候变化情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）数据，设置不同灌溉量（0、60、120、180、240和360 mm）和播种日期（3月1日、3月11日、3月19日、3月31日），模拟分析不同灌溉量及播期下旱地春小麦的产量和生物量差异。结果表明，模型在参数校准和验证后，能够较精确地模拟研究区春小麦的产量和生物量。未来气候变化情景下，随着灌溉量的增大，春小麦的产量和生物量均呈先增后减趋势，灌水120 mm条件下产量和生物量均最高；在3月1日播期下春小麦产量和生物量均最高， 3月31日播期下均最低；在灌溉量和播期的交互影响下，以灌水120 mm和3月1日播期处理的春小麦产量和生物量均最高。由此可见，在未来气候变化情景下通过适当增加灌溉量和提前播种，可有效提高旱地春小麦的产量和生物量。

英文摘要:

In order to explore the management strategy of irrigation and seeding time of dryland wheat under the background of future climate change, the Agricultural Production Systems SlMulator(APSIM) was used to analyze the statistical yearbook data of spring wheat in dryland in Longzhong from 2014 to 2022. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5) model for future climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) data, Different irrigation amounts(0, 60, 120, 180, 240 and 360 mm) and sowing dates(March 1, March 11, March 19, March 31) were set to simulate and analyze the difference of yield and biomass of spring wheat in dryland under different irrigation amounts and sowing dates. The results showed that the model could accurately simulate the yield and biomass of spring wheat in the study area after parameter calibration and verification. Under the future climate change scenario, the yield and biomass of spring wheat increased first and then decreased with the increase of irrigation amount, and the yield and biomass were the highest under the irrigation of 120 mm. The yield and biomass of spring wheat were the highest under the sowing date of March 1, and the lowest under the sowing date of March 31. Under the interaction of irrigation amount and sowing date, the yield and biomass of spring wheat treated with the irrigation water of 120 mm and the sowing date of March 1 were the highest overall. In conclusion, the yield and biomass of spring wheat in dryland can be effectively increased by increasing irrigation and sowing in advance under the future climate change scenario.

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