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作者	单位
房彦飞，张山清，唐江华，徐文修，罗晓颖，胡冬平	（1.新疆农业大学农学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830000； 2.新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台/新疆兴农网信息中心，新疆乌鲁木齐 830000）

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中文摘要:

为了解新疆旱地冬小麦生育期的气候变化及其对生产潜力的影响，利用1961-2020年11个气象站点逐月气象资料，选择农业生态区域法（AEZ）模型计算新疆旱地冬小麦生产潜力，运用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kenddall趋势检验（M-K）、反距离权重插值等分析了新疆冬小麦生产潜力的时空变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明，1961-2020年新疆旱地冬小麦生育期平均温度、≥10 ℃积温和降水量随时间的推进均呈升高的趋势，倾向率分别达到0.41 ℃·(10 a)^-1、74.05 ℃·(10 a)^-1和9.82 mm·(10 a)^-1；日照时数呈下降趋势，倾向率达到-23.32 h·(10 a)^-1。在空间上，旱地冬小麦生育期平均温度和降水量整体均以伊犁河谷地区最高，≥10 ℃积温和日照时数整体分别以塔额盆地和昌吉州东部最高。各站点平均气温和≥10 ℃积温呈极显著（P＜0.01）增加趋势，以塔额盆地平均增速最快；昌吉州东部降水量平均增速最快；昌吉州东部平均日照时数下降速率最快。冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力呈增加趋势，其倾向率分别达到74.54和323.79 kg·hm-2·(10 a)^-1。空间上光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力整体上分别以塔额盆地和伊犁河谷地区最高。其中，塔额盆地光温生产潜力和昌吉州东部气候生产潜力的增速均最快，二者的平均速率分别为101.45和487.50 kg·hm^-2·(10 a)^-1。光温生产潜力与气温、≥10 ℃积温呈显著正相关，与降水量呈显著负相关；气候生产潜力与降水量呈显著正相关，与日照时数呈显著负相关。80%左右的研究站点同上述相关性一致；在降水量丰富的伊犁河谷地区，气温和≥10 ℃积温是影响冬小麦生产潜力主要因素。因此，新疆旱作农区暖湿化气候有利于旱地冬小麦生产潜力的提高，且在此气候背景下未来新疆气候资源变化对旱地冬小麦的增产有利。

英文摘要:

To understand the climate change during the growth period of winter wheat in dryland areas of Xinjiang and its response to production potential, monthly meteorological data from 11 weather stations from 1961 to 2020 were utilized. The Agro-Ecological Zone(AEZ) model was selected to calculate the production potential of winter wheat in the dryland areas of Xinjiang. Linear propensity estimation, Mann-Kenddall trend test(M-K), and inverse-distance weighting interpolation were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal trends and influencing factors of winter wheat production potential in Xinjiang. The results indicated that from 1961 to 2020, the average temperature, accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃), and precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat in the dryland areas of Xinjiang showed an increasing trend, with changing rates of 0.41 ℃·per decade, 74.05 ℃·per decade, and 9.82 mm·per decade, respectively. Sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease rate of 23.32 h·per decade. Spatially, the Ili River Valley region had the highest average temperature and precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat, while the Tacheng-Emin Basin and the eastern part of Changji Prefecture had the highest accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃) and sunshine duration, respectively. The average temperature and accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃) at each station showed a highly significant(P<0.01) increasing trend, with the Tacheng-Emin Basin having the fastest average growth rate. The eastern part of Changji Prefecture had the fastest average growth rate in precipitation and the fastest decline rate in sunshine duration. The light-temperature production potential and climate production potential of winter wheat showed an increasing trend, with trend rates of 74.54 and 323.79 kg·hm^-2·per decade, respectively. Spatially, the Tacheng-Emin Basin and the Ili River Valley region had the highest light-temperature production potential and climate production potential, respectively. Among them, the Tacheng-Emin Basin had the fastest growth rate in light-temperature production potential, and the eastern part of Changji Prefecture had the fastest growth rate in climate production potential, with average rates of 101.45 and 487.50 kg·hm^-2·per decade, respectively. The light-temperature production potential was significantly positively correlated with temperature and accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃), but significantly negatively correlated with precipitation. The climate production potential was significantly positively correlated with precipitation, but significantly negatively correlated with sunshine duration. About 80% of the research stations showed consistent correlations with the above. In the Ili River Valley region with abundant precipitation, temperature and accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃) were the main factors affecting winter wheat production potential. Therefore, the warming and humidifying climate in the dryland agricultural areas of Xinjiang is conducive to improving the production potential of winter wheat, and under this climate background, future changes in climate resources in Xinjiang will be beneficial for increasing the yield of winter wheat in dryland areas.

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