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作者	单位
张全军，吴东丽，宏观，张波，段后浪	（1.中国气象局气象探测中心，北京 100081； 2.安康市气象局，陕西安康 725000； 3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101 4.中国气象局大气探测重点实验室，四川成都 6100225 5.中国气象局气象探测工程技术研究中心，北京 100081）

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中文摘要:

为了明确陕西安康地区冬小麦生育期演变规律及主要影响因素，基于该地区农业气象观测站点的气象观测和小麦生育期观测数据，利用线性倾向估计法和线性多元回归法分析了1981-2020 年陕西安康冬小麦生育期变化趋势以及冬小麦生长季（每年10月至翌年6月）气象要素的变化趋势，解析了冬小麦生育期变化与气象因子的关系。结果表明，1981-2020年陕西安康冬小麦生长季日平均气温、日平均地温、气温日较差、降水量和日照时数均呈现上升趋势，相对湿度呈下降趋势（P<0.001），其中3月份日平均气温上升幅度最明显，升幅达0.82 ℃·10 a^-1，1和3月份相对湿度下降趋势最明显，降幅分别达1.62和1.65个百分点·10 a^-1。1981-2020年，陕西安康冬小麦各生育时期的日期均显著提前，平均每10 a约提前3.18~12.69 d。营养生长期持续时间平均每10 a缩短8.11 d，营养生殖生长期持续时间平均每10 a延长7.67 d。冬小麦生育期变化和气象因子极显著相关。其中生育期与温度相关性最强。冬小麦10个生育时期日序数与气温、地温呈显著负相关，乳熟期日序数与气温日较差呈显著负相关（P<0.001）。各生育时期日序数与相对湿度均呈正相关关系，与降水量、日照时数呈负相关（P<0.001）。影响陕西安康冬小麦生育期的主导气象因子主要是气温、地温和气温日较差（P<0.01），相对湿度、降水和日照时数影响较小。综上所述，温度升高可能是导致陕西安康冬小麦生育期日期提前、营养生长期持续时间缩短和营养生殖生长期延长的主要原因。

英文摘要:

In order to clarify the evolution rule and main impact factors of winter wheat growth period in Ankang, Shaanxi, based on meteorological observation data from agricultural meteorological observation stations and wheat growth period observation data in the region, the linear tendency estimation method and linear multiple regression method were used to analyze the trend of winter wheat growth period changes in Ankang, Shaanxi from 1981 to 2020, as well as the trend of meteorological elements during the winter wheat growth season. The relationship between winter wheat growth period changes and meteorological factors was analyzed. The results showed that during the winter wheat growing season in Ankang, Shaanxi from 1981 to 2020, the daily average temperature, daily average ground temperature, daily temperature range, precipitation, and sunshine hours all showed an upward trend, while the relative humidity showed a downward trend (P<0.001). Among them, the daily average temperature increased the most significantly in March, with an increase of 0.82 ℃ per decade. The relative humidity decreased the most significantly in January and March, with a decrease of 1.62 and 1.65 percentage points per decade, respectively. From 1981 to 2020, the dates of each growth stage of winter wheat in Ankang, Shaanxi Province were significantly advanced, with an average of 3.18-12.69 d advanced per decade. The average duration of the vegetative growth period was shortened by about 8.11 d per decade, and the average duration of the vegetative reproductive growth period was extended by about 7.67 d per decade. Therewas a highly significant correlation between changes in the growth period of winter wheat and meteorological factors. The correlation between growth period and temperature was the strongest. There was a significantly negative correlation between the number of days in the 10 growth stages of winter wheat and temperature and ground temperature, and a significantly negative correlation between the number of days in the milk ripening stage and the daily temperature range (P<0.001). The number of days in each growth period was positively correlated with relative humidity, but negatively correlated with precipitation and sunshine hours (P<0.001). The main meteorological factors affecting the growth period of winter wheat in Ankang, Shaanxi were temperature, ground temperature, and daily temperature range (P<0.01), with relatively little influence from relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine hours. In summary, the increase in temperature may be the main reason for the earlier growth period of winter wheat in Ankang, Shaanxi, with the shorter duration of the nutritional growth period, and the longer nutritional reproductive growth period.

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