| 王志刚，王 瑾，刘 强.不同降水年型下旱地春小麦产量及其构成因素对播期和日均温度变化响应的模拟分析[J].麦类作物学报,2024,(11):1474 |
| 不同降水年型下旱地春小麦产量及其构成因素对播期和日均温度变化响应的模拟分析 |
| Simulation of Response of Spring Wheat Yield and Its Components to Sowing Date and Average Daily Temperature in Dryland under Different Precipitation Years |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 春小麦 APSIM模型 播期 降水量 日均温度 产量 生物量 |
| 英文关键词:Spring wheat APSIM model Sowing date Precipitation Average daily temperature Yield Biomass |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（32360438）；甘肃省拔尖领军人才项目（GSBJLJ-2023-09）;甘肃省重点研究发展计划项目（22YF7FA116） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探讨播期调控及降水量和日均温度变化对旱地春小产量及其构成因素的耦合效应，基于甘肃省陇中地区气象数据、土壤数据和管理数据，通过APSIM模型对不同播期及日均温度变化情景下春小麦产量和生物量进行模拟分析，并利用试验区2013—2018年大田试验的春小麦产量及生物量数据对该模型进行适用性验证。结果表明，春小麦模拟产量及生物量的NRMSE均在8%以内，模型的有效性均大于0.80，说明模型具有较高的准确度和适用性。使用1970—2018年研究区的气象及土壤数据，设置不同播期及日均温度变化的模拟情景\[早播(3月3日)、正常播(3月18日)、晚播(3月31日)；日平均温度变化范围为降温2.0 ℃～增温2.0 ℃，以温度变化量1 ℃为1个梯度\],经回归分析，小麦产量受影响程度表现为降水量>温度>播期，相同气候条件下小麦产量均表现为正常播>早播>晚播。春小麦在湿润年、正常播、日均温度降低2.0 ℃的条件下可获得最高产量。降水量对春小麦千粒重和籽粒数分别表现出负效应和正效应，温度则分别表现出正效应和负效应，千粒重和籽粒数均随着播期的推迟先增加后减少。综合分析，降水增多可通过增加春小麦籽粒数来提高产量；当地春小麦宜在3月中旬播种且应注重防寒与蓄水保墒，以促进小麦的高产与稳产。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the coupling effect of sowing date regulation and changes in precipitation and daily average temperature on spring wheat yield and its components in dryland, based on meteorological data, soil data, and management data in the Longzhong region of Gansu Province, the APSIM model was used to simulate and analyze the yield and biomass of spring wheat under different sowing dates and daily average temperature changes. The applicability of the model was verified using the spring wheat yield and biomass data from field experiments in the experimental area from 2013 to 2018. The results showed that the NRMSE for simulating yield and biomass of spring wheat was within 8%, and the effectiveness of the model was greater than 0.80, indicating that the model has high accuracy and applicability. Using meteorological and soil data from the research area from 1970 to 2018, simulation scenarios were set up for different sowing dates and daily temperature changes \[early sowing (March 3), normal sowing (March 18), and late sowing (March 31); daily average temperature changes ranged from cooling 2.0 ℃ to warming 2.0 ℃, with a temperature change of 1 ℃ as a gradient\]. Regression analysis showed that the degree of wheat yield was affected by precipitation>temperature>sowing date. Under the same climatic conditions, the wheat yield ranked as normal sowing>early sowing>late sowing. Spring wheat can achieve the highest yield in humid years, under normal sowing conditions, and with a daily average temperature decrease of 2.0 ℃. Precipitation had negative effects on thousand-grain weight but positive effects on grain number of spring wheat, while temperature had the opposite effects. The thousand-grain weight and grain number both increased and then decreased with the delay of sowing date. Based on comprehensive analysis, an increase in precipitation can improve yield by increasing the number of spring wheat grains. Local spring wheat should be sown in mid March and attention should be paid to coldness resistance and water retention to promote high and stable wheat yield. |
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