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张 燕,董莉霞,李 广,燕振刚,刘 强,王 钧,张 博.西北春麦区APSIM-Wheat模型作物参数全局敏感性分析与比较[J].麦类作物学报,2024,(9):1195
西北春麦区APSIM-Wheat模型作物参数全局敏感性分析与比较
Global Sensitivity Analysis and Comparison of Crop Parameters of APSIM-Wheat Model in Northwest Spring Wheat Region
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  春小麦  西北春麦区  APSIM-Wheat模型  敏感性分析  参数取值范围
英文关键词:Spring wheat  Nothwest spring wheat region  APSIM-Wheat model  Sensitivity analysis  Parameter value range
基金项目:甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2022A-057);甘肃省重点研究发展计划项目(22YF7FA116);甘肃省重点研究发展计划项目(20YF8NA135);甘肃省财政专项(GSCZZ20160909);甘肃省高等学校产业支撑项目(2021CYZC-15);甘肃省高等学校产业支撑项目(2022CYZC-41)
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张 燕,董莉霞,李 广,燕振刚,刘 强,王 钧,张 博 (1.甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院甘肃兰州 7300702.甘肃农业大学林学院甘肃兰州 730070) 
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中文摘要:
      为提高西北春麦区APSIM-Wheat模型的适应性及校准的效率和精度,需要对作物参数进行重新率定,并对参数的取值范围进行标定,设定±10%、±20%、±30%、±40%和±50%五个参数取值范围,采用EFAST法和Morris法比较不同参数取值范围下模型的18个作物参数对春小麦产量和生物量的敏感性,并分析EFAST方法下最适宜的参数取值范围,同时对比两种敏感性分析方法的一致性。结果表明,对产量敏感的参数分别为每克茎籽粒数量(GPGS)、初花期积温(TFI)、灌浆期积温(TSGF)、出苗期到拔节期积温(TEOJ)、开花期积温(TF)、潜在灌浆速率(PGFR);对生物量敏感的参数分别为出苗期到拔节期积温(TEOJ)、灌浆期积温(TSGF)、初花期积温(TFI)、开花期积温(TF)。模型敏感参数和不敏感参数的适宜取值范围分别为±30%和±5%。不同参数取值范围下EFAST法和Morris法得到的敏感性结果一致性较好,在进行参数的敏感性分析时可以互相替代。
英文摘要:
      In order to enhance the adaptability, efficiency, and precision of the APSIM-Wheat model in the northwestern spring wheat region in China, it was essential to recalibrate the crop variety parameters and calibrate the ranges of parameter values. Five parameter value ranges of ±10%, ±20%, ±30%, ±40%, and ±50% were defined. This study utilized the EFAST and Morris methods to analyze the sensitivity of yield and biomass to variations in 18 crop variety parameters within different ranges of parameter values. The EFAST method was further employed to determine the most appropriate parameter value range, and finally, the consistency between the two sensitivity analysis methods was assessed. The results showed that the parameters most sensitive to yield were grains per gram of stem (GPGS), accumulated thermal time from emergence to flowering (TFI), accumulated thermal time during grain filling (TSGF), accumulated thermal time from emergence to jointing (TEOJ), thermal time from flowering to maturity (TF), and potential grain filling rate (PGFR), respectively. The parameters most sensitive to biomass were accumulated thermal time from emergence to jointing (TEOJ), accumulated thermal time during grain filling (TSGF), accumulated thermal time from emergence to flowering (TFI), and thermal time from flowering to maturity (TF), respectively. Sensitivity parameters at ±30% and insensitive parameters within ±5% can be regarded as suitable ranges for modeling crop parameters. Under different parameter value ranges, the EFAST method and the Morris method exhibit good consistency in sensitivity results, suggesting that they can be interchangeably used in parameter sensitivity analysis.
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