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作者	单位
雒翠萍，聂志刚，王钧，董莉霞，逯玉兰，李广	（1.甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院，甘肃兰州 730070；2.甘肃农业大学林学院，甘肃兰州 730070）

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中文摘要:

为对不同播期和耕作条件下旱地春小麦生育期进行准确预测，利用甘肃省定西市安定区凤翔镇安家沟村2015-2016年大田试验数据及研究区1971-2017年气象数据，通过穷举试错法校准APSIM模型的相关参数，再用相关性分析检验，进而基于模型模拟数据分析播期和耕作措施对旱地春小麦生育期的影响。结果表明，春小麦全生育期及各生育阶段持续天数模拟值与实测值相关系数大于0.9，均方根误差（RMSE）为0.7～3.0 d，归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）为2.34%～6.93%，说明APSIM模型精度较高。随着播期的推迟，春小麦从种子萌发阶段到器官建成阶段（播种-开花）持续天数明显减少，籽粒形成阶段（开花-成熟）播期对持续天数影响不大。不同播期下，耕作措施对春小麦生长阶段持续天数影响都不显著。

英文摘要:

In order to accurately predict the growth period of dryland spring wheat under different sowing dates and cultivation conditions, data from 2015 to 2016 field trail and meteorological data from 1971 to 2017 in Anjiagou village, Fengxiang town, Anding district, Dingxi city, Gansu province were used to calibrate APSIM model parameters by exhaustive trial and error method, and correlation analysis was used for validation.Furthermore, the effects of sowing date and tillage measures on the growth period of spring wheat in dryland were analyzed. The results showed that the correlation coefficient between the simulated value and the measured value of the whole growth period and the duration of each growth stage of spring wheat was greater than 0.9; the root mean square error(RMSE) was 0.7-3.0 d, and the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE) was 2.34%-6.93%, indicating that the APSIM model had high accuracy. With the delay of sowing date, the duration days of spring wheat from seed germination stage to organ formation stage(sowing to flowering) decreased significantly, and sowing date had little effect on the duration days of spring wheat from seed formation stage(flowering to maturity).Under different sowing dates, tillage measures had no significant effect on the duration of growth stage.

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