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作者	单位
裴雪霞，党建友，张定一，武雪萍，赵娟	(1.山西省农业科学院小麦研究所，山西临汾 041000 2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京 100081； 3.临汾市尧都区气象局，山西临汾 041000)

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中文摘要:

为探讨晋南地区气候变化与旱地小麦产量的关系，利用山西省临汾市1961年6月至2015年5月的逐日降水量、气温及日照时数资料，对近54年来晋南气候变化特征及其与旱地小麦产量的相关性进行了分析。结果表明，临汾市近54年来年平均降水量为478.2 mm，波动中呈下降趋势，20世纪90年代年降水最少，21世纪开始回升，平水年和枯水年份分别占31.5%和38.9%；旱地小麦休闲前期（6-7月）和越冬前（播种到日均气温5 d稳定在0 ℃日期）每10年平均降水量明显减少，自20世纪90年代开始，休闲中后期（8-9月）降水量增加，对增加旱地麦田深层土壤贮水量有利。年日均气温、最高和最低气温分别以每年0.040 6、0.024 6和0.064 9 ℃的趋势逐年升高，旱地小麦冬前积温、越冬期日均温也逐年升高，其中冬前积温≥700 ℃的年份占74.1%，21世纪后达100%，使小麦冬前旺长的几率增加，越冬始期从20世纪60、70年代的11月下旬推迟到21世纪的12月上中旬。年日照时数呈缩短趋势，其中越冬期缩短最明显。晋南旱地麦区小麦产量与降水量存在较高正相关性，其中与生育期降水量的相关性达显著水平，与气温的相关性较小，因此降水是制约晋南旱地小麦稳产高产的首要限制因子。

英文摘要:

Based on the records of daily precipitation,air temperature,and sunshine duration from June of 1961 to May of 2015,climate change characteristics of nearly 54 years and their correlationship with wheat yield in south of Shanxi dry land were analyzed.The results showed that average annual precipitation of nearly 54 years in south of Shanxi was 478.2 mm,which was decreased year by year. Precipitation in 1990s was the lowest,and was increased in twenty-first century. Normal years and dry years took up to 31.5% and 38.9%,respectively. Average precipitation per decade during early fallow period (June to July) and before winter(from sowing time to air temperature continually at 0 ℃ for 5 days) in dry-land were decreased. Average precipitation per decade during late fallow period (August to September) was increased since 1990s,which was favorable to water storage of deep soil. Daily average air temperature,the maximum and minimun air temperature per year were increased by 0.040 6 ℃,0.024 6 ℃ and 0.064 9 ℃ annually,respectively. Accumulated temperature before winter and daily average air temperature during over-wintering were increased year by year. The years with accumulated temperature over 700 ℃ before winter accounted for 74.1%,of which after 2000s took up to 100%,resulting in prosperous growing before winter. Beginning date of over-wintering was postponed from late November in 1960s and 1970s to early or middle December in 2000s. Annual sunshine hours were shorten year by year,and sunshine hours during wintering period was shorten obviously. Wheat yields in south of Shanxi dry land had highly positive correlation with precipitation,and the correlation coefficient with precipitation during wheat growth period was significant. There was no significant correlation between wheat yield and air temperature. Thus,precipitation is the primary limiting factor to dry-land wheat yield,stable and high yield production in south of Shanxi wheat region.

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