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作者	单位
李萌，申双和，褚荣浩，李楠，吕厚荃	(1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，江苏南京 210044； 2.山东聊城市气象局，山东聊城 252000；3.中国气象局国家气象中心，北京 100081)

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中文摘要:

为宏观了解冬小麦产量及产量稳定度的变化规律，基于1991-2013年黄淮海冬麦区91个有冬小麦种植的农业气象站点的冬小麦发育期及对应年份100个气象站点逐日气象资料，采用格点积温指标划分生育期，通过逐步订正法对冬小麦的气候生产潜力及其变异系数进行估算，之后结合国家气候中心RegCM3模式模拟A1B情景下1951-2100年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料，对未来情景下冬小麦气候生产潜力及其变异系数进行预估。结果表明，从年际变化看，黄淮海冬麦区冬小麦气候生产潜力总体呈现波动下降的趋势，且该波动逐渐趋稳；各时段气候生产潜力基本介于6 277~7 044 kg·hm^-2，除2011-2040年有21.94 kg·hm^-2·10 a^-1的上升趋势外，其余时段均呈明显下降趋势。冬小麦气候生产潜力在空间上总体呈北部低、四周高，在时间上主要呈先平稳后逐渐降低的趋势；其变异系数在空间上总体呈北高南低，在时间上呈北部先增后减、南部先减后增的变化趋势。在实际生产过程中应更加注重冬小麦生长发育过程中光、温、水的匹配程度。

英文摘要:

Based on winter wheat growth period data of 91 agricultural meteorological stations in Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region in 1991-2013 and daily meteorological data of 100 weather stations in the corresponding years, the stepwise correct method was adopted to estimated the winter wheat climatic potential productivity and its coefficient of variation by using the growth period divided from grid accumulated temperature, then the winter wheat climatic potential productivity and its coefficient of variation in the future period were projected based on daily 0.25×0.25 degree gridded meteorological data under A1B climate scenario(1951-2100)extracted from the regional climate model RegCM3 released by the National Climate Center. The results showed the winter wheat climatic potential productivity in Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region showed a fluctuant decrease trend from the inter-annual variation, and the trend gradually stabilized; the winter wheat climatic potential productivity varied between 6 277-7 044 kg·hm^-2,except the rise of 21.94 kg·hm^-2·10 a^-1in 2011-2040, presented a downward trend during other periods in Huang-Huai-Hai winter wheat region; Winter wheat climatic potential productivity was lower in the north and higher in the surround from space, smooth before gradually reduce from time, the coefficient of variation showed a gradually increase trend from the south to the north from space, firstly increases and then decreases in northern and firstly decreases and then increases in southern from time. The match of water, light and temperature should be paid more attention during the growth period in the practical production process.

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