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作者	单位
李国强，陈丹丹，张建涛，冯晓，任德超，郑国清	（1.河南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所，河南郑州 450002； 2.商丘市农林科学院，河南商丘 476000）

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中文摘要:

为定量评估气候变化背景下河南省小麦生产潜力和增产空间的变化特征，应用DSSAT模型估算了河南省15个生态点连续50年（1963-2012年）的冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力，并分析了生产潜力的分布规律。结果表明，河南省小麦光温生产潜力为8 350~9 996 kg·hm^-2，总体呈现北高南低、东高西低的趋势，而气候生产潜力为2 590~7 943 kg·hm^-2，总体呈现南高北低的趋势。河南大部分麦区光温生产潜力变化范围为9 173~9 446 kg·hm^-2，约占全省小麦总面积的43.5%。光温生产潜力高于9 447 kg·hm^-2的地区主要分布在豫北麦区（安阳、新乡西北部）及豫中麦区（许昌、西华），约占全省小麦总面积的33.6%。河南省大部分麦区气候生产潜力变化范围为4 375~7 050 kg·hm^-2，约占全省小麦总面积的59.5%。河南省15个地点的水分满足率为28%~91%，大部分地区水分满足率不到60%；河南小麦灌溉增产潜力变化范围为723~6 573 kg·hm^-2，其中三门峡、郑州、开封、商丘等地以北地区的灌溉增产潜力在4 623 kg·hm^-2以上，约占全省小麦总面积的49.4%，而驻马店以南及信阳地区的灌溉增产潜力低于2 673 kg·hm^-2，约占全省小麦总面积的17.5%。

英文摘要:

Henan province is a major production area of winter wheat. To quantitatively evaluate the variation characteristics of wheat production potential and yield-increasing potential in Henan province under climate change,DSSAT model was employed to estimate light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) and climatic potential productivity (CPP) of wheat based on meteorological data and wheat growth data at 15 sites of Henen province during 1963-2012. The distribution of LTPP and CPP then was analyzed. The result showed that LTPP of wheat was between 8 350 and 9 996 kg·hm^-2,the distribution of which was lower in the southern and western regions but higher in the northern and eastern regions. CPP of wheat was between 2 590 and 7 943 kg·hm^-2,the distribution of which was lower in the northern regions but higher in the southern regions. LTPP in most regions were 9 173 kg·hm^-2 to 9 446 kg·hm^-2,taking up nearly 43.5% of the Henan wheat-growing areas. Regions with higher than 9 447 kg·hm^-2 of LTPP were mostly in the north of Henan (e.g. the northwest of Anyang and Xinxiang),and in the center of Henan (e.g. Xuchang and Xihua),which account for 33.6% of Henan wheat-growing areas. CPP in most regions were 4 375 kg·hm^-2 to 7 050 kg·hm^-2,accounting for nearly 59.5% of the Henan wheat-growing areas. Moisture requirement rate of 15 sites were 28% to 91%,which of most regions in Henan were lower than 60%. The yield increasing potential by irrigation (YIPI) were 723 kg·hm^-2 to 6 573 kg·hm^-2. YIPI in the north of Sanmenxia,Zhengzhou,Kaifeng and Shangqiu were higher than 4 623 kg·hm^-2,taking up 49.4% of Henan wheat-growing areas. YIPI in Xinyang and the north of Zhumadian were lower than 2 673 kg·hm^-2,taking up 17.5% of Henan wheat-growing areas.

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