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为了解气候变暖对江苏省冬小麦生长发育与产量的影响，利用相关和回归等统计方法分析了该省有代表性的淮阴、扬州和昆山观测点1990-2009年冬小麦生长季的温度、降水量、产量及1992-2009年生育进程的变化。结果表明，三个观测点冬小麦生长季平均气温上升明显，上升速度分别为每年0.056、0.084和0.059℃，而降水量变化不明显。冬小麦生育期后十年比前十年分别缩短5、4和11 d，且表现为营养生长阶段缩短。去趋势后产量与气候因子关系分析表明，扬州和昆山小麦产量受最低温度影响最大，最低温度上升1℃，分别减产4.9％和5.9％。而淮阴小麦产量受最高温度影响最大，且表现出升温有利于增产。随平均温度上升，扬州、昆山分别减产3.2％和4.1％，淮阴增产 1.7％。降水对三站点历年产量变化的影响不大。

英文摘要:

In order to comprehend the effect of climate warming on the yield and growth of winter wheat，three representative long-term observations of winter wheat (Huaiyin, Yangzhou and Kunshan) in Jiangsu province were chosen, correlation and regression analysis were conducted to reveal the response of growth development process and yield of winter wheat to climate warming, based on the wheat yield records over the period 1990-2009 and datasets of the development process of wheat during 1992-2009 in the three stations. It was found that over these twenty years, the diurnal mean, minimum and maximum temperatures during wheat growing season increased by 0.056, 0.084 and 0.059 ℃ each year on average in Huaiyin, Yangzhou and Kunshan, respectively. No significant change in the precipitation amount was found. The most obvious warming was occurred in Yangzhou, the central of Jiangsu province, followed by that in Kunshan of the south of Jiangsu, and Huaiyin of the north of Jiangsu, where was considered as the least increase among the three stations. Compared to those in the 1990s, growth period of winter wheat was shorten by 5, 4 and 11 d in the 2000s in Huaiyin, Yangzhou and Kunshan, respectively, as reflected in the reduction of vegetative growth period. The daily maximum temperature was the dominant factor to development period of winter wheat in Huaiyin, the effect of daily minimum temperature in vegetative and reproductive growth stage of winter wheat were important in Kunshan. There is no significant correlation between the growth period of winter wheat and the daily mean temperature, minimum temperature and maximum temperature in Yangzhou. While there was no significance found in correlation between period of winter wheat and precipitation amount in each station. Nonlinear regression analysis of wheat yield and climatic factors showed that wheat yield was obviously correlated with the daily minimum temperature in Yangzhou and Kunshan. With the minimum temperature rising by 1℃, the yield of winter wheat descend by 4.9％ and 5.9％ in Yangzhou and Kunshan, respectively. However the daily maximum temperature was the dominant factor in Huaiyin, the yield of winter wheat increased by 3.5％ when it rising by 1℃. With the mean temperature rising 1℃, the yield of winter wheat descend 3.2％ and 4.1％ in Yangzhou and Kunshan, respectively, while the yield of winter wheat increase 1.7％ in Huaiyin. In brief, removing the trend of production caused by the factors of technical progress, the yield is increasing in Huaiyin, and decreasing in Kunshan and Yangzhou. On the whole, the yield of winter wheat in north Jiangsu province benefits from the climate warming, especially the increase of maximum temperature, while the yield in central and southern Jiangsu province reduce obviously. Precipitation amount has little influence on the change of the winter wheat yield.

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