| 成萍旎，单宏英，胡小敏，马志远，冯志珍，安德荣.西北地区小麦黄矮病流行趋势预测模型[J].麦类作物学报,2011,31(6):1168 |
| 西北地区小麦黄矮病流行趋势预测模型 |
| Prediction Models for Prevalent Trends of Wheat Yellow Dwarf Disease in Northwest China |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2011.06.030 |
| 中文关键词: 西北地区 小麦黄矮病 流行趋势 预测模型 |
| 英文关键词:Northwest China Wheat yellow dwarf Occurrence Forecast model |
| 基金项目:农业部公益性行业专项(nyhyzx07 051)；教育部高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B07049)。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为给小麦黄矮病防治适期的确定提供有效手段，利用2001-2010年西北地区小麦黄矮病资料，分析了小麦黄矮病不同年份病害流行动态、品种抗性差异、主麦区流行状况以及病害流行与气象因子的关系。结果表明，不同年份或同一年份不同月份小麦黄矮病发病情况不同，不同品种抗病性存在差异，西北地区主要麦区间该病害流行具有相关性。利用筛选出的8个主要影响因子构建了多因子线性回归预测模型，模型历史拟合率达96.5%，预测效果较好，可用于西北地区小麦黄矮病流行的预测预报。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Wheat yellow dwarf is one of the important viral diseases in the world. The occurrence of wheat yellow dwarf disease has close connection with account of Schizaphis graminum and meteorological factor. Based on the long periods (2001-2010) monitoring of meteorological data and of the occurrence and prevalent tendency of wheat yellow dwarf in the primarily wheat production areas of northwest China, multifactor model of predicting the prevalence of wheat yellow dwarf was constructed after analysis with 23 predicted factors. The model's accuracy detected by regressive test with ten years data was 96.5%. Hence, it can be used for predicting and early warning of disease occurrence level of wheat yellow dwarf disease. |
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